Which of these statements is true?
- The chances are you'll read the rest of this page ...
- You'll probably read the rest of this page or ...
- You'll possibly read the rest of this page ...
Which of them is accurate? What do they mean anyway?
I won't repeat what I've written in my book about these things but we'll talk about this subject in a different way. When we say ... the chances are that I'll play cards at the weekend, it means that it's more likely that I will play, than I won't play. If I say the chances are that I won't play cards at the weekend means that it's more than likely that I won't.
I won't repeat what I've written in my book about these things but we'll talk about this subject in a different way. When we say ... the chances are that I'll play cards at the weekend, it means that it's more likely that I will play, than I won't play. If I say the chances are that I won't play cards at the weekend means that it's more than likely that I won't.
But whatever I say no-one would be
surprised if I did or didn't, because I only said that the chances are
... and by that I invoke a whole set of social rules that allows anyone
to put their own interpretation on whether I will turn up or not.
But neither of these outcomes is certain,
and if the same behaviour happened over 150 years it is never a
certainty, but it's getting more likely. What is a certainty is that I
will or I won't turn up. But that's a belief not a statistical fact.
- See more...
No comments:
Post a Comment