Tuesday 9 September 2014

A simple explanation of chance and probability

Which of these statements is true?
  1. The chances are you'll read the rest of this page ...
  2. You'll probably read the rest of this page or ...
  3. You'll possibly read the rest of this page ...
Which of them is accurate? What do they mean anyway?

I won't repeat what I've written in my book about these things but we'll talk about this subject in a different way. When we say ... the chances are that I'll play cards at the weekend, it means that it's more likely that I will play, than I won't play. If I say the chances are that I won't play cards at the weekend means that it's more than likely that I won't.
But whatever I say no-one would be surprised if I did or didn't, because I only said that the chances are ... and by that I invoke a whole set of social rules that allows anyone to put their own interpretation on whether I will turn up or not.
But neither of these outcomes is certain, and if the same behaviour happened over 150 years it is never a certainty, but it's getting more likely. What is a certainty is that I will or I won't turn up.  But that's a belief not a statistical fact. - See more...

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